2009.04.15 07:52:08
Not disageeing with you Dean just pointing out that because someone at the bank tell you one thing doesn’t a fact make.
Someone at that same bank in another division might tell you another “fact” that contradicts the first “fact”.
So the fact is “someone told you something” which is their opinion. It miht be a good opinion and based on a raft of Facts but its still only opinion.
I know of a large company in NZ that just borrowed $550,000,000. That’s a fact!
They couldn’t get it from one bank. Thats a fact!
The banks don’t have enough money to lend out such large sums is an opinion.
In the world of economics the “facts” you are presenting are called lagging indicators.
They happen after certain other things happen.
People get laid off for example after a business has performed badly, not before.
The cars being repossed happen after people have not made payments because they lost their jobs, not before.
Signs of a recovery are leading indicators.
Copper volummes increase.
Interest rates.
Business sentiment.
Building permits.
So if the leading indicators are saying we are moving into a positive phase then that’s whats happening.
Unfortunately leading indicators can’t tell you how long before something happens. The lagging indicators will lt you thoug
